Good news: Higher-than-normal temperatures that cut down the spread of COVID-19 are imminent

In a forecast that "may be a first", Higher-than-normal temperatures forecast for much of the U.S. during the next three months.

AccuWeather is forecasting ‘higher-than-normal temperatures’ for the next 3 months after historically higher than normal temperatures this past winter. It was also reported that High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 in a paper posted on March 10, 2020 and revised on March 19 2020.
This conclusion seems to be bolstered by the map of the COVID-19 Global Cases from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center that shows decidedly fewer cases in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. This conclusion is bolstered by another study that interpreted the data that: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus.

First the good news

The abstract of the paper summarized the results of the research study:
This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
This simply means that as the air temperature and humidity go up, the transmission of the COVID-19 decreases. While there may be other factors at work, the lower caseload in the Southern Hemisphere would seem to confirm this conclusion.
A Reason magazine report on the preliminary study summarised it this way:
Let’s take the average climate of a randomly chosen American city—say, Washington, D.C. In March, the average high temperature is 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 degrees C), with a relative humidity of 58 percent. In August, the average high temperature is 87 degrees Fahrenheit (30.6 degrees C) and humidity averages 71 percent. Assuming optimistically an R of 2, that would yield an August R of 1.047. In this scenario, rising summer heat and humidity would cut the R in half and significantly slow down the course of the epidemic.

Followed by even better news

So we have a research study and data that shows that higher temperatures and humidity reduces the transmission of the disease. Meanwhile, it’s been a relatively mild winter with the onset of higher-than-normal temperatures across the states.
“There is almost no part of the country that we are predicting to be below normal in any of the three months, which is unusual,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “This may be a first.
“But if the coronavirus is slowed by heat, then this is a good thing,” Myers added. “The U.S. has been blessed to have this warmer weather.”

Our Take: Is this just a coincidence?

Stepping back and looking at all of this in terms of what could happen causes one to marvel at the course of events. We are in the middle of a pandemic that threatens the economy as well as global stability.
Consider what would happen if the left attained control of the country next November if we don’t recover from this crisis. As they always will do, the left would take this as an excellent opportunity to implement the worst parts of their socialist national agenda ranging from a raft of bankruptcy inducing entitlement programs to gun confiscation on a national scale.
There are already rumblings of secession movement along with talk that we are already in a cold civil war. Next November could be an even worse replay of 1860 if the totalitarian ten percent holds the reins of power, wanting to impose their vision of ‘Utopia’.
The forecast that indicates that COVID-19 might be knocked down by the heat across the country could be just a coincidence that saves the nation and the world from another Dark Age. It could also show that something else is at work that indicates that this is more than a coincidence.
Originally published on the NOQ Report

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